Pattern Library
11 patterns (6 tribal · 5 playbook) extracted from 91 decision events
Nexus Components (SUP-B) has delivered 100% on-time across 8 orders, averaging 13.4 days lead time vs. 14-day quoted. Particularly reliable for SKU-1042 and SKU-1045. Zero quality rejects.
When NE-01 RTLS and ERP counts diverge >5%, RTLS count is consistently more accurate for demand planning. ERP discrepancies typically reflect receiving scan delays (1-3 day lag).
Transfers from MW-02 to NE-01 via Werner LTL are consistently cost-effective ($6-9/unit) when NE-01 is below 6 DoS. Average transit 2.1 days. 14/14 historical transfers delivered on-time.
When a major maritime chokepoint closes (Panama, Suez, Hormuz), rerouting via Cape of Good Hope via MAERSK adds 22-28 days transit but preserves 100% of revenue. Cost premium averages 3.8× standard freight but is consistently the highest-NPV option vs air or stockout. Validated across 9 disruption events.
TechParts Global (SUP-A) hits capacity constraints every Q4 (Oct-Nov). Expedite windows close earlier than communicated, and post-window delays average 4.2 days.
For tier-1 criticality SKUs under maritime disruption: split 40% to air freight and 60% to sea Cape reroute. Air component prevents production stoppage in 5 days; sea component refills buffer at 3.8× lower cost. Optimal when revenue-at-risk exceeds $150K.
RetailerX consistently pulls forward holiday orders 2-3 weeks when facing competitive pressure. DC velocity runs 18-25% above forecast in the 10 days prior to formal PO submission.
ASEAN Tech Components (SUP-SEA, Singapore) is a fully qualified alternate for SKU-2001/2002. Validated during Panama Canal closure 2024 (DO-2024-PC-0003). Routes via Pacific — unaffected by Hormuz or Suez. 18-day lead time, 28% premium. Can activate within 48h of PO.
NE-01 demand forecasts systematically underestimate Q4 velocity by 15-28% for electronics SKUs 1042-1046. Bias grows as promo season approaches. Forecasts should be marked up 20% Oct-Nov.
AcmeCorp reliably places large orders 5-7 days before required delivery date with no advance notice. Orders consistently carry tight SLA terms but low breach penalties.
Full-network expedite orders for demand spikes consistently destroy margin (avg -$31K) vs. targeted transfer + partial expedite ($-8K avg). Historical DO-2023-SC-0031 (BAD outcome) is the canonical failure case.