Intelligence
How AgentForge's institutional intelligence has compounded over time
Pattern P-001 (RetailerX Seasonal Ordering Behavior, 5/5 historical occurrences) indicates 2 additional demand spikes likely before Nov 30. NE-01 buffer inventory should be maintained above 8.0 DoS threshold. Current: 4.1 DoS — active scenario in queue.
Pattern P-002 (SUP-A Q4 Capacity Crunch, 81% confidence) blocks expedite orders routed to SUP-A for 3 SKUs (1042, 1043, 1044). Alternative routing via SUP-B confirmed feasible at 12-day lead time. Any expedite planning this quarter should route through SUP-B.
MW-02→NE-01 Werner LTL transfer (P-003) is the library's highest-confidence action at 88.9%. Bayesian update from 15th success moved confidence from 0.880 → 0.889. This pattern now executes autonomously for qualifying demand spikes — no HITL required.
P-001 (RetailerX Seasonal Ordering) needs 1 more successful resolution to cross the auto-execute confidence threshold (85%, current 89% with <12 evidence). Next RetailerX Q4 event will push P-001 to auto-execute eligibility, lifting autonomous rate from 35% to ~43%.
Patterns P-002 and P-006 generated from the $31K Q3 2023 failure have blocked identical failure paths 3 times in Q4 2024, preventing an estimated $47K in margin loss. Bad outcome documentation is working as designed — each failure accelerates future protection.
Q3 2023 dip caused by DO-2023-SC-0031 (BAD outcome). Pattern P-006 generated from that failure — quality has recovered to 80+ since.
8 active patterns built from 15 decisions. Each new DO either reinforces existing patterns or generates a new one.
First autonomous execution in Q2 2024 (pattern P-003 crossed auto-execute threshold). Current rate: ~35%. Target: 60%+ by Q2 2025 as P-001 and P-008 confidence continues to build.
TRANSFER has a 100% success rate (8/8). EXPEDITE is riskier (2/4 — the 2 failures are what generated patterns P-002 and P-006).