Audit Trail

Threshold breach: NE-01 inventory at 4.1 DoS (threshold: 5.0). RetailerX Q4 demand spike pattern P-001 active.

Source: SUP-A capacity alert email. Extracted: operational_suspension=true, duration_hours=72, affected_skus=[1042,1043,1044,1045,1046]. Confidence: 0.94.

5 structured signals assembled: NE-01 RTLS on-hand, MW-02 available, open orders, RetailerX DC velocity, SUP-B lead time.

4 hypotheses generated from Action Template Library: H1=TRANSFER(MW-02→NE-01), H2=EXPEDITE(SUP-B), H3=EXPEDITE(SUP-A), H4=DO_NOTHING.

P-002 (SUP-A Q4 capacity constraint, 81% confidence) + P-006 (full expedite margin destruction, 66% confidence) combined to eliminate H3. Adversarial confidence: 0.03.

Eliminated: NE-01 at 4.1 DoS with confirmed RetailerX PO arriving in 8 days. SLA breach probability: 91%. Adversarial confidence: 0.08.

H1 scored 88% (P-003 transfer economics pattern, 14/14 historical success). Cost: $6,560. Revenue protected: $15,200. Net margin: +$8,640.

First Q4 occurrence for this retailer requires human validation per routing policy. Pattern P-001 auto-execute not yet triggered.

Approved: Transfer 800u from MW-02 to NE-01 via Werner LTL. No override. Authority: L3.

P-003 (MW-02→NE-01 Transfer Economics) updated: evidenceCount 14→15, confidence 0.88→0.89 (Bayesian: α=1, β=0.2). Trend: BUILDING.

Pattern P-003 auto-execute threshold met (88% confidence, 14/14 success). Transfer 600u MW-02→NE-01 executed without HITL. Cost: $4,920.

P-003 promoted to AutoExecuteEligible after 14th consecutive success. Confidence: 0.88. Threshold: 0.85 with ≥12 evidence.

Override: Agent recommended H1 (Transfer), human overrode to H2 (Expedite SUP-B) — faster for air freight SLA. Rationale: "RetailerX called for air — Werner LTL 2.1 days too slow."

Post-mortem on DO-2023-SC-0031 (BAD outcome). 2 new patterns extracted: P-002 (SUP-A Q4 capacity), P-006 (full expedite margin destruction). Quality score 41/100.